2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 5 2022
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
29@30
KC +1
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 72%Projected margin: 6.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 1. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -321 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES