2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LV – Week 8 2024
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
27@20
KC +7
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 72%Projected margin: -7.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
-7.0
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 7.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -440 | Won · +$0.27 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
| KC@LVW12 2023 | KC 31, LV 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES