2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ TB – Week 8 2024
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
31@26
ATL +5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 61%Projected margin: 1.8
TB
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
1.8
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.8 -- the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
No noteworthy trends
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES