MIN @ LA – Week 8 2024
MIN
LA
MIN
AWAY
20@30
LA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 59%Our line: LA -3.2
LA
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-146
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.030
+0.016Offense EPA / play+0.014
-0.086Defense EPA / play+0.044
45.6%Offense success %46.8%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 10. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -155 | +130 |
| Our fair price | +146 | -146 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0 SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
S.Darnold4319 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
A.Jones1138 yd · 5 TD
C.Akers297 yd · 1 TD
S.Darnold212 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson103 rec · 1533 yd · 10 TD
J.Addison63 rec · 875 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@MINW16 2021 | LA 30, MIN 23 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 3.2. The market has LA at +3.0.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 30, MIN 23 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against LA -0.030.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
