Vikings vs Rams – Week 8 2024
MIN
LA
MIN
AWAY
20@30
LA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 20, Los Angeles Rams 30.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 3 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 59%Our line: LA -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.103Net EPA / play-0.030
+0.016 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
-0.086 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
45.6% (12)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 10. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@MINW16 2021 | LA 30, MIN 23 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 3.2. The market has LA at +3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, MIN 20, LA 30. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 30, MIN 23 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.103 against LA -0.030.
