Bills vs Seahawks – Week 8 2024
BUF
SEA
BUF
AWAY
31@10
BUF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 31, Seattle Seahawks 10.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bills, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
47.5% (7)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 21. Off by 15.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@BUFW9 2020 | SEA 34, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs SEA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.4. The market has BUF at -3.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 31, SEA 10. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Buffalo Bills were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Buffalo Bills, SEA 34, BUF 44 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against SEA -0.018.
