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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

RECENT PICKS

RECEIPTS
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

Every NFL pick we've published since 2020, with the final score and the win or loss attached. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

1070-540-5
SU RECORD
66.5%
ACCURACY
+$102
PROFIT · NO-VIG
51.5%
ATS RATE
6 SEASONS · 1,615 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC

PROFIT is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. It is a comparable series, not take-home returns. Past results. Not financial advice.

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
83.7%
A+
75.1%
A
68.0%
B
66.3%
C
58.3%

ATS BY TIER

S
48.8%
A+
51.3%
A
45.0%
B
52.3%
C
52.7%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.2%
MID (3.5-7)
67.7%
BIG (7.5+)
81.0%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-267 · MID (3.5-7): 422-201 · BIG (7.5+): 306-72

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL CONVICTION

HIGH
69.1%
LEAN
58.3%
HIGH: 841-376 · LEAN: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.7%
AWAY
64.8%
HOME: 611-291 · AWAY: 459-249

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.3%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-390 · DOG: 145-150

ALL-TIME SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1,615
WIN
1070
ATS RECORD
814-768-33
ATS RATE
51.5%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.5%
2021
62.7%
2022
66.2%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.3%
2020: 172-83-1 · 2021: 170-101-1 · 2022: 178-91-2 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-86-1

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 51.5% , -0.9 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
51.5%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Bars are scaled to the 47–57% range, not 0–100%, so a three-point gap is visible. Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%
12-3
69%
11-5
90%
9-1
63%
5-3
86%
12-2
96%
23-1
A+73%
29-11
76%
25-8
76%
19-6
76%
28-9
83%
24-5
70%
26-11

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
46-24
-1
DEC
41-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
31-18
+10
OCT
49-23
-3
NOV
33-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+3
OCT
46-28
-3
NOV
35-22
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
39-20
-2
DEC
47-28
-2
JAN
8-8
-3
SEP
35-29
+13
OCT
44-16
+13
NOV
45-14
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
51-20
+3
DEC
41-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more, so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

RECENT PICKS

LAST 15 GRADED · 1,615 ON RECORD
SEASONWEEKMATCHUPPICKTIERSPREADSCORESUATSML P/L
2025W18BAL @ PITPITC+4.524-26WIN✓+$2
2025W18WAS @ PHIPHIA+-3.024-17LOSS✗-$1
2025W18NYJ @ BUFBUFS-12.58-35WIN✓+$0
2025W18MIA @ NENEA-14.010-38WIN✓+$0
2025W18LAC @ DENDENA-14.53-19WIN✓+$0
2025W18KC @ LVKCA-3.512-14LOSS✗-$1
2025W18DET @ CHICHIB-3.519-16LOSS✗-$1
2025W18ARI @ LALAS-14.520-37WIN✓+$0
2025W18TEN @ JAXJAXS-12.57-41WIN✓+$0
2025W18NO @ ATLATLB-4.517-19WIN✗+$1
2025W18IND @ HOUHOUA+-9.530-38WIN✗+$0
2025W18GB @ MINGBC+12.53-16LOSS✗-$1
2025W18DAL @ NYGDALB-3.017-34LOSS✗-$1
2025W18CLE @ CINCINA-9.520-18LOSS✗-$1
2025W18SEA @ SFSFB+2.513-3LOSS✗-$1
VIEW FULL LEDGER · ALL 1,615 PICKS →
Weekly Picks →How We Pick →Season Review →Model Edge (CLV) →
SEEN ENOUGH?
The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, the model saw only prior weeks for each game. Live picks publish before kickoff from Week 1 2026. Pro adds the Edge: the games the model flags as bets.
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OR GET THE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK
A100%
4-0
25%
2-6
45%
5-6
58%
11-8
78%
21-6
81%
25-6
B66%
73-38
68%
106-49
67%
111-55
66%
102-52
67%
92-46
60%
66-44
C63%
54-32
43%
26-34
58%
34-25
56%
30-24
63%
40-24
64%
45-25
Min 3 picks per tier/season; the record is under each rate and cells under 10 picks are greyed. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
9-7
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7