Every NFL pick since 2020, with the final score and the win or loss attached: the 2020-2025 seasons from our walk-forward backtest, and every 2026 pick, captured before kickoff; the ledger marks any we can't prove. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.
Our highest-probability miss this week: the Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability lost 16-18.
The midweek injury re-pick of Bears at Falcons to the Falcons lost 23-31.
The A-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 1-2 (33%) against a 69% all-time rate.
| TIER | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | 80% 12-3 | 69% 11-5 | 90% 9-1 | 63% 5-3 | 86% 12-2 | 96% 23-1 | 80% 4-1 |
| A+ | 73% 29-11 | 76% 25-8 | 76% |
PROFIT is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. It is a comparable series, not take-home returns. Past results. Not financial advice.
| SEASON | WEEK | MATCHUP | PICK | TIER | SPREAD | SCORE | SU | ATS | ML P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W6 | WAS @ SF | SF | S | -7.5 | 17-23 | WIN | ✗ | +$0 |
| 2026 | W6 | DAL @ GB | GB | C | -1.5 | 13-23 | WIN | ✓ | +$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | LAC @ KC | KC | A+ | -7.5 | 6-22 | WIN | ✓ | +$0 |
| 2026 | W6 | BUF @ LV | BUF | A | -5.5 | 33-30 | WIN | ✗ | +$0 |
| 2026 | W6 | ARI @ LA | LA | S | -12.5 | 18-16 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | TEN @ IND | IND | A | -7.0 | 26-20 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | PIT @ TB | PIT | B | -2.5 | 26-19 | WIN | ✓ | +$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | NYJ @ NE | NE | S | -7.5 | 19-26 | WIN | ✗ | +$0 |
| 2026 | W6 | NO @ NYG | NYG | B | +1.5 | 34-27 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | CHI @ ATL | ATL | C | +1.5 | 31-23 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | CAR @ PHI | PHI | C | +3.0 | 25-14 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | BAL @ CLE | BAL | B | -3.0 | 10-13 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | HOU @ JAX | JAX | A | -2.5 | 34-31 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 2026 | W6 | SEA @ DEN | DEN | B | +2.5 | 14-17 | WIN | ✓ | +$1 |
| 2026 | W5 | BUF @ LA | LA | B | -3.5 | 37-34 | LOSS | ✗ | -$1 |
| 76% 28-9 |
| 83% 24-5 |
| 70% 26-11 |
| 77% 10-3 |
| A | 100% 4-0 | 25% 2-6 | 45% 5-6 | 58% 11-8 | 78% 21-6 | 81% 25-6 | 67% 6-3 |
| B | 66% 73-38 | 68% 106-49 | 67% 111-55 | 66% 102-52 | 67% 92-46 | 60% 66-44 | 56% 25-20 |
| C | 63% 54-32 | 43% 26-34 | 58% 34-25 | 56% 30-24 | 63% 40-24 | 64% 45-25 | 48% 10-11 |
