Bears vs Lions – Week 12 2026
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
@
THU 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Bears at 60% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DET 60%Our line: DET -3.6
80% range around our line: CHI by 14 to DET by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.6
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
56%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SPORTSBOOK | CHI | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 12 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.008Net EPA / play+0.029
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
46.1% (11)Offense success %49.1% (4)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DET at 60%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
DET has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against CHI.
RED ZONE
DET converts 93% in the red zone vs 53% for CHI. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.8 for CHI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 60% win probability. The margin models project DET by 3.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 60% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, THU 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: CHI +0.008 against DET +0.029.
