CHI @ DET – Week 12 2026
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
@
THU 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DET 59%Projected margin: -0.8
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.010
45.8%Offense success %45.2%
46.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors DET (C-tier, 59% confidence).
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
DET has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against CHI.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. Grade: C.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
R.Odunze44 rec · 661 yd · 6 TD
L.Burden47 rec · 652 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,942PASSyds4,564
2,253RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW17 2026 | — | CHI | — |
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Who is favored in Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 0.8. The market has DET at -2.5.
When do the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, THU 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions game?
Detroit Lions, 19-16 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Chicago Bears or the Detroit Lions?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: CHI +0.061 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
