KC @ BUF – Week 12 2026
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
@
THU 8:20 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 79%Projected margin: -9.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-9.7
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.035Offense EPA / play+0.136
-0.020Defense EPA / play-0.016
44.5%Offense success %48.5%
43.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on BUF at 79% confidence.
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
BUF has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against KC.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.6 for KC. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.7-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in BUF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
P.Mahomes3587 yd · 22 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
K.Hunt611 yd · 8 TD
I.Pacheco462 yd · 1 TD
P.Mahomes422 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
T.Kelce76 rec · 851 yd · 5 TD
M.Brown49 rec · 587 yd · 5 TD
R.Rice53 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
X.Worthy42 rec · 532 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,587PASSyds3,668
1,495RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BUF
Who is favored in Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.7. The market has BUF at -2.5.
When do the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 21-28 in Week 9 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Kansas City Chiefs or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: KC +0.055 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
