TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.058
+0.004 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.080 (26)
+0.005 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (15)
42.6% (17)Offense success %39.1% (28)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
CLE is our early forecast in LV @ CLE (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 65% confidence and projects CLE by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 65% win probability. The margin models project CLE by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Cleveland Browns at 65% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 24, LV 10 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.001 against CLE -0.058.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 1:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
CLE -1.5
CLE -1.5
CLE -5.1
MONEYLINE
CLE -125
CLE -122
CLE -184
CLE's moneyline moved from -125 to -122 since it opened.
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
44.9% (25)Defense success %43.3% (16)
+0.161 (9)Pass EPA / play-0.004 (20)
-0.224 (31)Rush EPA / play-0.188 (29)
26.4 (9)Points / game18.6 (27)
25.8 (22)Points allowed / game22.4 (14)
59.3%Pass rate58.5%
64.3%Red zone TD %50.0%
21.6%4th down go %19.1%
RaidersBrowns
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Raiders by 12 and Browns by 22. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.