ATL @ MIN – Week 12 2026
ATL
MIN
ATL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 58%Projected margin: +0.4
ATL
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
+0.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.021Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.004Defense EPA / play-0.100
43.7%Offense success %42.6%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
ATL is our early forecast in ATL @ MIN (Week 12, 2026). The model assigns 58.1% confidence and projects MIN by 0.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | ATL market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
201.9SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
M.Penix1982 yd · 9 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
B.Robinson1478 yd · 7 TD
T.Allgeier514 yd · 8 TD
M.Penix70 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
K.Pitts88 rec · 928 yd · 5 TD
D.London68 rec · 919 yd · 7 TD
B.Robinson79 rec · 820 yd · 4 TD
D.Mooney32 rec · 443 yd · 1 TD
VS
1,982PASSyds1,632
2,062RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ATLW9 2023 | MIN 31, ATL 28 | MIN | W |
| ATL@MINW6 2020 | ATL 40, MIN 23 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIN
Who is favored in Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings?
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 58% win probability. The margin models project MIN by 0.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings game?
Atlanta Falcons, 22-6 in Week 2 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Atlanta Falcons or the Minnesota Vikings?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: ATL -0.018 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
