Falcons vs Vikings – Week 14 2024
ATL
MIN
ATL
AWAY
21@42
MIN BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 21, Minnesota Vikings 42.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.027Net EPA / play+0.103
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (15)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (3)
48.1% (5)Offense success %45.6% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 21. Off by 14.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| MIN@ATLW9 2023 | MIN 31, ATL 28 | MIN | W |
| ATL@MINW6 2020 | ATL 40, MIN 23 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.2. The market has MIN at -6.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, ATL 21, MIN 42. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -6.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 14, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 0.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, MIN 6 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: ATL -0.027 against MIN +0.103.
