Seahawks vs Cardinals – Week 14 2024
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
30@18
SEA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 30, Arizona Cardinals 18.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 62%Our line: ARI -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.067 (11)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.056 (26)
43.9% (16)Offense success %47.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 16.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ARIW2 2026 | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.0. The market has ARI at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 30, ARI 18. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, ARI 7 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Arizona Cardinals: SEA -0.018 against ARI +0.011.
