2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ ARI – Week 14 2024
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
30@18
SEA +12
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 62%Projected margin: 1.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 13.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
191.2SEASON PPR
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW7 2023 | ARI 10, SEA 20 | SEA | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES