Seahawks vs Cardinals – Week 4 2025
SEA
ARI
SEA
AWAY
23@20
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 23, Arizona Cardinals 20.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: SEA 58%Our line: SEA -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.033 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (23)
-0.117 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (27)
46.3% (7)Offense success %43.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SEA by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ARIW2 2026 | SEA 31, ARI 7 | SEA | W |
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ARI
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.7. The market has SEA at -1.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 23, ARI 20. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -1.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 4, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, ARI 7 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against ARI -0.107.
