2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ NYG – Week 4 2025
LAC
NYG
LAC
AWAY
18@21
NYG +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 76%Projected margin: -7.5
LAC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-7.5
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.5 -- the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LACW14 2021 | NYG 21, LAC 37 | LAC | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES