Browns vs Lions – Week 4 2025
CLE
DET
CLE
AWAY
10@34
DET BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 10, Detroit Lions 34.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 83% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 83%Our line: DET -13.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -13.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
34.5% (32)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 13.0. Actual: 24. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CLEW11 2021 | DET 10, CLE 13 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 83% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 13.0. The market has DET at -10.0.
Detroit Lions won, CLE 10, DET 34. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 83% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -10.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, DET 10, CLE 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: CLE -0.094 against DET +0.091.
