CLE @ DET – Week 4 2025
CLE
DET
CLE
AWAY
10@34
DET BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 83%Our line: DET -13.0
DET
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-13.0
OUR LINE
-493
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.190Offense EPA / play+0.081
-0.096Defense EPA / play-0.010
34.5%Offense success %45.2%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 13.0. Actual: 24. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +410 | -550 |
| Our fair price | +493 | -493 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
83%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CLEW11 2021 | DET 10, CLE 13 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 83% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 13.0. The market has DET at -10.0.
The model projects 48.0 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, DET 10, CLE 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: CLE -0.094 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
