2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CLE – Week 11 2021
DET
CLE
DET
AWAY
10@13
CLE +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: CLE
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 68%Projected margin: 7.6
CLE
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 3. Off by 4.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -590 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DETW4 2025 | CLE 10, DET 34 | DET | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES