Lions vs Browns – Week 11 2021
DET
CLE
DET
AWAY
10@13
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 10, Cleveland Browns 13.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Lions, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 68%Our line: CLE -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
42.0% (22)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DETW4 2025 | CLE 10, DET 34 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.4. The market has CLE at -13.0.
Cleveland Browns won, DET 10, CLE 13. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -13.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 11, the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, CLE 10, DET 34 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: DET -0.161 against CLE +0.012.
