DET @ CLE – Week 11 2021
DET
CLE
DET
AWAY
10@13
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 68%Our line: CLE -6.4
CLE
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-214
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.063Offense EPA / play+0.013
+0.098Defense EPA / play+0.001
42.0%Offense success %43.9%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +465 | -590 |
| Our fair price | +214 | -214 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
83%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DETW4 2025 | CLE 10, DET 34 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.4. The market has CLE at -13.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, CLE 10, DET 34 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: DET -0.161 against CLE +0.012.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
