Commanders vs Panthers – Week 11 2021
WAS
CAR
WAS
AWAY
27@21
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 27, Carolina Panthers 21.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: CAR 56%Our line: CAR -1.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -1.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.124Net EPA / play-0.093
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
43.9% (20)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but WAS won. Projected margin was 1.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@WASW7 2024 | CAR 7, WAS 40 | WAS | W |
| CAR@WASW16 2020 | CAR 20, WAS 13 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 1.9. The market has CAR at -3.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 27, CAR 21. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 11, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, CAR 7, WAS 40 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Carolina Panthers: WAS -0.124 against CAR -0.093.
