2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ CAR – Week 11 2021
WAS
CAR
WAS
AWAY
27@21
WAS +6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 56%Projected margin: 2.5
CAR
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but WAS won. Projected margin was 2.5 -- the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -172 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@WASW7 2024 | CAR 7, WAS 40 | WAS | W |
| CAR@WASW16 2020 | CAR 20, WAS 13 | WAS | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES