2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYG @ TB – Week 11 2021
NYG
TB
NYG
AWAY
10@30
TB +20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 65%Projected margin: 8.6
TB
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
8.6
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 8.6. Actual: 20. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -527 | Won · +$0.19 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
144.1SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NYGW12 2024 | TB 30, NYG 7 | TB | W |
| TB@NYGW8 2020 | TB 25, NYG 23 | TB | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES