Giants vs Buccaneers – Week 11 2021
NYG
TB
NYG
AWAY
10@30
TB BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 65%Our line: TB -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
39.3% (30)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 20. Off by 14.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NYGW12 2024 | TB 30, NYG 7 | TB | W |
| TB@NYGW8 2020 | TB 25, NYG 23 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 5.2. The market has TB at -11.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, NYG 10, TB 30. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -11.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 11, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 3.3 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 30, NYG 7 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NYG -0.192 against TB +0.217.
