2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ LV – Week 11 2021
CIN
LV
CIN
AWAY
32@13
CIN +19
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 52%Projected margin: 1.6
LV
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
1.6
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 20.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +112 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9SEASON PPR
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CINW9 2024 | LV 24, CIN 41 | CIN | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES