Bengals vs Raiders – Week 11 2021
CIN
LV
CIN
AWAY
32@13
CIN BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 32, Las Vegas Raiders 13.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 52%Our line: LV -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LV +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
44.2% (17)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CINW9 2024 | LV 24, CIN 41 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 0.7. The market has LV at +1.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 32, LV 13. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at +1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 11, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.9 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, LV 24, CIN 41 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against LV -0.064.
