CIN @ LV – Week 11 2021
CIN
LV
CIN
AWAY
32@13
CIN BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 11
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: LV 52%Our line: LV -0.7
LV
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-108
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.057Offense EPA / play-0.019
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.045
44.2%Offense success %44.9%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -123 | +112 |
| Our fair price | +108 | -108 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4611 yd · 34 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1205 yd · 13 TD
Samaje Perine246 yd · 1 TD
Joe Burrow118 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase81 rec · 1455 yd · 13 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1091 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CINW9 2024 | LV 24, CIN 41 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 0.7. The market has LV at +1.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 11 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, LV 24, CIN 41 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against LV -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
