LV @ CIN – Week 9 2024
LV
CIN
LV
AWAY
24@41
CIN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 67%Our line: CIN -6.0
CIN
PICK SIDE
-8.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-204
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.143Offense EPA / play+0.090
+0.021Defense EPA / play+0.037
40.5%Offense success %47.2%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +320 | -410 |
| Our fair price | +204 | -204 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -8.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.32
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7 SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0 SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
J.Meyers87 rec · 1027 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LVW11 2021 | CIN 32, LV 13 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.0. The market has CIN at -8.0.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 32, LV 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: LV -0.164 against CIN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
