Raiders vs Bengals – Week 9 2024
LV
CIN
LV
AWAY
24@41
CIN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bengals 41.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 67%Our line: CIN -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
40.5% (26)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@LVW11 2021 | CIN 32, LV 13 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.0. The market has CIN at -8.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, LV 24, CIN 41. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -8.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 9, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 32, LV 13 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: LV -0.164 against CIN +0.053.
