2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ GB – Week 9 2024
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
24@14
DET +10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 62%Projected margin: 1.9
GB
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DET won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 11.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES