Lions vs Packers – Week 9 2024
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
24@14
DET BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 24, Green Bay Packers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Lions, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 62%Our line: GB -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.232Net EPA / play+0.146
+0.170 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
-0.062 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
50.1% (1)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DET won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 14.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 4.3. The market has GB at +2.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 24, GB 14. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.0 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against GB +0.146.
