2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ TEN – Week 9 2024
NE
TEN
NE
AWAY
17@20
TEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: TEN 60%Projected margin: 1.3
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 1.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7SEASON PPR
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@TENW7 2025 | NE 31, TEN 13 | NE | W |
| TEN@NEW12 2021 | TEN 13, NE 36 | NE | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES