Patriots vs Titans – Week 9 2024
NE
TEN
NE
AWAY
17@20
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Tennessee Titans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 60%Our line: TEN -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.4
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.146
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (30)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.030 (21)
42.4% (19)Offense success %39.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 3.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@TENW7 2025 | NE 31, TEN 13 | NE | W |
| TEN@NEW12 2021 | TEN 13, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.4. The market has TEN at -3.0.
Tennessee Titans won, NE 17, TEN 20. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 31, TEN 13 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tennessee Titans: NE -0.153 against TEN -0.146.
