2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ KC – Week 9 2024
TB
KC
TB
AWAY
24@30
KC +6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 73%Projected margin: 8.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
8.0
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -425 | Won · +$0.27 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TBW4 2022 | KC 41, TB 31 | TB | L |
| KC@TBW12 2020 | KC 27, TB 24 | KC | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES