Buccaneers vs Chiefs – Week 9 2024
TB
KC
TB
AWAY
24@30
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Kansas City Chiefs 30.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 4 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -9.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.115Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
49.5% (3)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TBW4 2022 | KC 41, TB 31 | TB | L |
| KC@TBW12 2020 | KC 27, TB 24 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 8.1. The market has KC at -9.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, TB 24, KC 30. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -9.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 9.0 points.
In Week 9, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 0.4 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 41, TB 31 in Week 4 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against KC +0.059.
