HOU @ NYJ – Week 9 2024
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
13@21
NYJ BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 66%Our line: HOU -5.4
HOU
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-191
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.050Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.065Defense EPA / play+0.024
38.8%Offense success %42.6%
39.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | -191 | +191 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5 SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4 SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3727 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mixon1016 yd · 11 TD
D.Pierce293 yd · 2 TD
C.Stroud233 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins68 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
T.Dell51 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 5.4. The market has HOU at +2.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 6, NYJ 30 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against NYJ -0.037.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
