Texans vs Jets – Week 9 2024
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
13@21
NYJ BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 13, New York Jets 21.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 6 Jets.
Model confidence: HOU 66%Our line: HOU -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (17)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
38.8% (31)Offense success %42.6% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYJ
Our model takes Houston Texans at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 5.4. The market has HOU at +2.5.
New York Jets won, HOU 13, NYJ 21. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at +2.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.6 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 6, NYJ 30 in Week 14 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against NYJ -0.037.
