2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ NYJ – Week 9 2024
HOU
NYJ
HOU
AWAY
13@21
NYJ +8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 66%Projected margin: -3.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-3.8
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 3.8 -- the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6SEASON PPR
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
| NYJ@HOUW12 2021 | NYJ 21, HOU 14 | HOU | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES