Jets vs Texans – Week 12 2021
NYJ
HOU
NYJ
AWAY
21@14
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 21, Houston Texans 14.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 52%Our line: HOU -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.220Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
41.6% (23)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.7. The market has HOU at -3.0.
New York Jets won, NYJ 21, HOU 14. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 13, NYJ 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Houston Texans: NYJ -0.220 against HOU -0.212.
