2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ HOU – Week 12 2021
NYJ
HOU
NYJ
AWAY
21@14
NYJ +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 52%Projected margin: 0.1
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -138 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES