NYJ @ HOU – Week 12 2021
NYJ
HOU
NYJ
AWAY
21@14
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 52%Our line: HOU -0.7
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.7
OUR LINE
-109
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.220Net EPA / play-0.212
-0.092Offense EPA / play-0.138
+0.128Defense EPA / play+0.074
41.6%Offense success %37.4%
47.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but NYJ won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +125 | -138 |
| Our fair price | +109 | -109 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4 SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9 SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Michael Carter639 yd · 4 TD
Tevin Coleman356 yd · 0 TD
Ty Johnson238 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
Corey Davis34 rec · 492 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NYJW9 2024 | HOU 13, NYJ 21 | HOU | L |
| HOU@NYJW14 2023 | HOU 6, NYJ 30 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.7. The market has HOU at -3.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, HOU 13, NYJ 21 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Houston Texans: NYJ -0.220 against HOU -0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
