Bills vs Saints – Week 12 2021
BUF
NO
BUF
AWAY
31@6
BUF BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 31, New Orleans Saints 6.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints.
Model confidence: BUF 54%Our line: BUF -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -1.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.242Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (24)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.109 (2)
47.7% (5)Offense success %40.6% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 25. Off by 23.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BUFW4 2025 | NO 19, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NO
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 1.3. The market has BUF at -7.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 31, NO 6. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 12, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NO 19, BUF 31 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against NO +0.035.
