Falcons vs Jaguars – Week 12 2021
ATL
JAX
ATL
AWAY
21@14
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 14.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: ATL 54%Our line: ATL -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -1.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.180Net EPA / play-0.206
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
40.4% (29)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 1.4. Actual: 7. Off by 5.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@JAXW4 2023 | ATL 7, JAX 23 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs JAX
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.4. The market has ATL at -1.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 21, JAX 14. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 12, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, ATL 7, JAX 23 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.180 against JAX -0.206.
