2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ JAX – Week 12 2021
ATL
JAX
ATL
AWAY
21@14
ATL +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ATL 54%Projected margin: -1.6
ATL
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 7. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@JAXW4 2023 | ATL 7, JAX 23 | JAX | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES