2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ IND – Week 12 2021
TB
IND
TB
AWAY
38@31
TB +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 53%Projected margin: -0.2
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but TB won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@INDW12 2023 | TB 20, IND 27 | IND | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES