Buccaneers vs Colts – Week 12 2021
TB
IND
TB
AWAY
38@31
TB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Indianapolis Colts 31.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: IND 53%Our line: IND -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -0.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.217Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
49.4% (2)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but TB won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@INDW12 2023 | TB 20, IND 27 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 0.9. The market has IND at +3.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 38, IND 31. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 5.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, TB 20, IND 27 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against IND +0.045.
