TB @ IND – Week 12 2021
TB
IND
TB
AWAY
38@31
TB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 53%Our line: IND -0.9
IND
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.9
OUR LINE
-112
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.217Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.137Offense EPA / play+0.051
-0.080Defense EPA / play+0.006
49.4%Offense success %44.3%
42.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but TB won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -149 | +135 |
| Our fair price | +112 | -112 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
Mike Evans74 rec · 1035 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@INDW12 2023 | TB 20, IND 27 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 0.9. The market has IND at +3.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 53.0.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, TB 20, IND 27 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against IND +0.045.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
