TB @ IND – Week 12 2023
TB
IND
TB
AWAY
20@27
IND BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.9
IND
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.035
-0.024Defense EPA / play-0.017
39.6%Offense success %40.8%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 7. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +160 | -160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1 SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Baker Mayfield4044 yd · 28 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rachaad White990 yd · 6 TD
Chase Edmonds176 yd · 0 TD
Baker Mayfield163 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans79 rec · 1255 yd · 13 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.83 rec · 1024 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@INDW12 2021 | TB 38, IND 31 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 3.9. The market has IND at -2.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 38, IND 31 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.007 against IND -0.019.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
