Commanders vs Cowboys – Week 12 2023
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
10@45
DAL BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 10, Dallas Cowboys 45.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 79%Our line: DAL -10.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -10.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.190Net EPA / play+0.220
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
41.0% (21)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 10.7. Actual: 35. Off by 24.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 10.7. The market has DAL at -13.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, WAS 10, DAL 45. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -13.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 12, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 1.4 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: WAS -0.190 against DAL +0.220.
