WAS @ DAL – Week 12 2023
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
10@45
DAL BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 79%Our line: DAL -10.7
DAL
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-10.7
OUR LINE
-368
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.190Net EPA / play+0.220
-0.106Offense EPA / play+0.106
+0.085Defense EPA / play-0.114
41.0%Offense success %47.4%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 10.7. Actual: 35. Off by 24.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +550 | -800 |
| Our fair price | +368 | -368 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
WAS
Sam Howell
QB
257.5 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
203.2 SEASON PPR
Brian Robinson
RB
198.1 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RUSHING
Brian Robinson733 yd · 5 TD
Antonio Gibson265 yd · 1 TD
Sam Howell263 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
Curtis Samuel62 rec · 613 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
| DAL@WASW18 2023 | DAL 38, WAS 10 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 10.7. The market has DAL at -13.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 30, WAS 23 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: WAS -0.190 against DAL +0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
