2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ DET – Week 12 2023
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
29@22
GB +7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 75%Projected margin: 6.9
DET
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
6.9
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 6.9 -- the model overestimated by 13.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -425 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES