Packers vs Lions – Week 12 2023
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
29@22
GB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 29, Detroit Lions 22.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 75%Our line: DET -9.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -9.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.056Net EPA / play+0.093
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
44.6% (9)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 9.2, the model overestimated by 16.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 9.2. The market has DET at -8.5.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 29, DET 22. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -8.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 12, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 1.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: GB +0.056 against DET +0.093.
