2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LV – Week 12 2023
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
31@17
KC +14
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 66%Projected margin: -3.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
-3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 14. Off by 10.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -500 | Won · +$0.27 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
213.9SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES