2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 13 2024
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
17@19
KC +2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 80%Projected margin: 11.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
11.7
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 11.7. Actual: 2. Off by 9.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -800 | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
| KC@LVW12 2023 | KC 31, LV 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES