Raiders vs Chiefs – Week 13 2024
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
17@19
KC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17, Kansas City Chiefs 19.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 80%Our line: KC -11.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -11.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
40.5% (26)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 11.3. Actual: 2. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | KC 30, LV 27 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 11.3. The market has KC at -13.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, LV 17, KC 19. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -13.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 4.1 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, FRI 3:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, LV 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LV -0.164 against KC +0.059.
