Colts vs Patriots – Week 13 2024
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
25@24
IND BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 25, New England Patriots 24.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
40.2% (28)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NE
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 3.8. The market has IND at -2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 25, NE 24. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 13, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 3.6 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 10, NE 6 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against NE -0.153.
