2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ NE – Week 13 2024
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
25@24
IND +1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 61%Projected margin: -1.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 1.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES