IND @ NE – Week 13 2024
IND
NE
IND
AWAY
25@24
IND BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.8
IND
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-157
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.083
+0.004Defense EPA / play+0.070
40.2%Offense success %42.4%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 | +114 |
| Our fair price | -157 | +157 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NEW10 2023 | IND 10, NE 6 | NE | L |
| IND@NEW9 2022 | IND 3, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@INDW15 2021 | NE 17, IND 27 | NE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 3.8. The market has IND at -2.5.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 10, NE 6 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against NE -0.153.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
