LA @ NO – Week 13 2024
LA
NO
LA
AWAY
21@14
LA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 61%Our line: NO -3.7
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.030Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.014Offense EPA / play-0.057
+0.044Defense EPA / play+0.044
46.8%Offense success %40.6%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but LA won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 |
| Our fair price | +154 | -154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1 SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6 SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
206.6 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford3762 yd · 20 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1299 yd · 14 TD
B.Corum207 yd · 0 TD
R.Rivers99 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua79 rec · 990 yd · 3 TD
C.Kupp67 rec · 710 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@LAW9 2025 | NO 10, LA 34 | LA | W |
| NO@LAW16 2023 | NO 22, LA 30 | LA | W |
| LA@NOW11 2022 | LA 20, NO 27 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.7. The market has NO at +2.5.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, NO 10, LA 34 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA -0.030 against NO -0.101.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
