Saints vs Rams – Week 9 2025
NO
LA
NO
AWAY
10@34
LA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 10, Los Angeles Rams 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 81%Our line: LA -11.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -11.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.206
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
42.0% (26)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 11.9. Actual: 24. Off by 12.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@NOW13 2024 | LA 21, NO 14 | NO | L |
| NO@LAW16 2023 | NO 22, LA 30 | LA | W |
| LA@NOW11 2022 | LA 20, NO 27 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 11.9. The market has LA at -14.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, NO 10, LA 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -14.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 21, NO 14 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: NO -0.029 against LA +0.206.
