2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ PIT – Week 9 2025
IND
PIT
IND
AWAY
20@27
PIT +7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2025 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 66%Projected margin: -2.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES