2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ IND – Week 15 2023
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
13@30
IND +17
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 56%Projected margin: -0.1
PIT
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but IND won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 17.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
195.5SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES