Steelers vs Colts – Week 15 2023
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
13@30
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 13, Indianapolis Colts 30.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: PIT 56%Our line: PIT -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
42.0% (17)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but IND won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW5 2026 | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs IND
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.2. The market has PIT at +1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, PIT 13, IND 30. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, IND 22, PIT 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.013 against IND -0.019.
