PHI @ SEA – Week 15 2023
PHI
SEA
PHI
AWAY
17@20
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 64%Our line: PHI -4.7
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-174
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.035
+0.054Offense EPA / play+0.016
+0.049Defense EPA / play+0.051
45.9%Offense success %43.9%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but SEA won. Projected margin was 4.7, the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -238 | +195 |
| Our fair price | -174 | +174 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
356.8 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
289.6 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
227.6 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3858 yd · 23 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift1049 yd · 5 TD
Jalen Hurts605 yd · 15 TD
Kenneth Gainwell364 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown106 rec · 1456 yd · 7 TD
DeVonta Smith81 rec · 1066 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@PHIW12 2020 | SEA 23, PHI 17 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.7. The market has PHI at -5.0.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 23, PHI 17 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against SEA -0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
