NYJ @ MIA – Week 15 2023
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
0@30
MIA BY 30
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 79%Our line: MIA -11.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.1
OUR LINE
-387
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.133Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.252Offense EPA / play+0.097
-0.119Defense EPA / play-0.039
35.0%Offense success %47.2%
37.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 11.1. Actual: 30. Off by 18.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +275 | -345 |
| Our fair price | +387 | -387 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5 SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall994 yd · 5 TD
Dalvin Cook214 yd · 0 TD
Zach Wilson211 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
Tyler Conklin61 rec · 621 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 11.1. The market has MIA at -7.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 36.0.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.133 against MIA +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
