Dolphins vs Jets – Week 7 2026
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jets over the Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has the Jets at -4.5, and our model is 1.7 points lower on them than the book.
Model confidence: NYJ 58%Our line: NYJ -2.8
80% range around our line: MIA by 15 to NYJ by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NYJ game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -2.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
NYJ · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIA | NYJ | NYJ WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +185 | -225 | 67.1% |
| ESPN BET |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 7 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play+0.037
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.025 (20)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (5)
37.6% (30)Offense success %42.8% (16)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
NYJ is our C-tier play in MIA @ NYJ (Week 7, 2026). The model assigns 58% confidence and projects NYJ by 2.8. The market has NYJ -4.5, so it expects NYJ to win by 4.5. The model is 1.7 points lower on NYJ than the book.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHERKICKOFF FORECAST · 6 DAYS OUT
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
5 MPH
PRECIP
0%
SKY
CLEAR
Hourly forecast for the kickoff hour at the home stadium, source National Weather Service, refreshed hourly. Not an input to the pick.
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
Our model takes New York Jets at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYJ by 2.8. The market has NYJ at -4.5.
Our model favors New York Jets at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick.
The market has New York Jets at -4.5, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 4.5 points.
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: MIA -0.224 against NYJ +0.037.
