MIA @ NYJ – Week 7 2026
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 70%Projected margin: -4.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-4.5
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.017Offense EPA / play-0.127
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.147
41.9%Offense success %40.7%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA backed by epa edge at 70%.
EPA EDGE
MIA generates -0.017 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
MIA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
MIA has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against NYJ.
RED ZONE
MIA converts 80% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Multiple signals align in MIA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds1,259
1,837RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@MIAW12 2026 | — | MIA | — |
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NYJ
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at New York Jets?
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 4.5. The market has MIA at +2.5.
When do the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets play?
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets game?
Miami Dolphins, 34-10 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the New York Jets?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.105 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
