TB @ CAR – Week 7 2026
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
CAR
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CAR 60%Projected margin: -1.1
CAR
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.039
+0.013Defense EPA / play+0.067
42.4%Offense success %43.1%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CAR is our C-tier play in TB @ CAR (Week 7, 2026). The model assigns 59.8% confidence and projects CAR by 1.1. Market spread sits at CAR +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds3,011
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW12 2026 | — | TB | — |
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers?
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 1.1. The market has CAR at +1.5.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers play?
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 14-16 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Carolina Panthers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.022 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
