Broncos vs Cardinals – Week 7 2026
DEN
ARI
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 7 · 2026 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Cardinals at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick.
The market has the Broncos at -5.5, and our model is 5.6 points higher on them than the book.
Model confidence: DEN 79%Our line: DEN -11.1
80% range around our line: ARI by 6 to DEN by 28. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -11.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
79%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
+13%
| SPORTSBOOK | DEN | ARI | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -220 | +184 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 7 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.041Net EPA / play-0.142
-0.066 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (16)
-0.025 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.124 (29)
39.9% (26)Offense success %45.9% (12)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on DEN at 79% confidence.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates -0.066 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.124. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
DEN is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.1-point margin.
Multiple signals align in DEN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHERKICKOFF FORECAST · 6 DAYS OUT
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
TEMP
80°F
WIND
5 MPH
PRECIP
5%
SKY
CLEAR
Hourly forecast for the kickoff hour at the home stadium, source National Weather Service, refreshed hourly. Not an input to the pick.
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DENW15 2022 | ARI 15, DEN 24 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs ARI
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 11.1. The market has DEN at -5.5.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick.
The market has Denver Broncos at -5.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 5.5 points.
Week 7 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, ARI 15, DEN 24 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.041 against ARI -0.142.
