Cardinals vs Broncos – Week 15 2022
ARI
DEN
ARI
AWAY
15@24
DEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 15, Denver Broncos 24.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: ARI 63%Our line: ARI -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.088 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
+0.016 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
40.6% (26)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DEN
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.3. The market has ARI at +1.5.
Denver Broncos won, ARI 15, DEN 24. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +1.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 15, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 8.6 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: ARI -0.104 against DEN -0.060.
