ARI @ DEN – Week 15 2022
ARI
DEN
ARI
AWAY
15@24
DEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 63%Our line: ARI -4.3
ARI
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.088Offense EPA / play-0.109
+0.016Defense EPA / play-0.049
40.6%Offense success %38.1%
47.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +110 | -121 |
| Our fair price | -167 | +167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
47%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2 SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
Marquise Brown67 rec · 709 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.3. The market has ARI at +1.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: ARI -0.104 against DEN -0.060.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
