Dolphins vs Bills – Week 15 2022
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
29@32
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 29, Buffalo Bills 32.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
44.5% (16)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 3. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.8. The market has BUF at -7.0.
Buffalo Bills won, MIA 29, BUF 32. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 15, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA +0.039 against BUF +0.168.
