Bills vs Dolphins – Week 10 2025
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
13@30
MIA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 13, Miami Dolphins 30.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: BUF 72%Our line: BUF -7.8
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
45.3
VEGAS LINE
50.5
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
BUF -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.136 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
-0.016 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
48.5% (2)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIA won. Projected margin was 7.8, the model overestimated by 24.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.8. The market has BUF at -8.5.
Miami Dolphins won, BUF 13, MIA 30. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -8.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.2 below the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, MIA 21, BUF 31 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against MIA -0.105.
