2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ MIA – Week 10 2025
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
13@30
MIA +17
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 72%Projected margin: -5.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-5.4
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIA won. Projected margin was 5.4 -- the model overestimated by 22.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW4 2023 | MIA 20, BUF 48 | BUF | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES