Patriots vs Buccaneers – Week 10 2025
NE
TB
NE
AWAY
28@23
NE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
48.4% (3)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NE won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.1. The market has TB at -2.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 28, TB 23. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 2.0 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 19, NE 17 in Week 4 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against TB -0.022.
