2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ TB – Week 10 2025
NE
TB
NE
AWAY
28@23
NE +5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: 4.1
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NE won. Projected margin was 4.1 -- the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES