AFC East · #11 NET EPA · 107 GAMES ON RECORD
New England Patriots
FOR 35-17 (67%)VS 39-16 (71%)ATS 29-23 (56%)110–94 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
NEXT 5 GAMES
NOPUNT WIN PROBABILITY- WK 7
@ Chicago Bears THU OCT 22, 8:15 PM ET 58% to win Our pick: NE - WK 8
@ Miami Dolphins SUN NOV 1, 4:25 PM ET 78% to win Our pick: NE - WK 9
vs Green Bay Packers SUN NOV 8, 4:25 PM ET 69% to win Our pick: NE - WK 10
@ Detroit Lions SUN NOV 15, 9:30 AM ET 62% to win Our pick: NE - WK 12
@ Los Angeles Chargers SUN NOV 29, 8:20 PM ET 77% to win Our pick: NE
2026 AGAINST OUR PICKS
6 GRADED5-1 our picks right-wrong in New England Patriots games. New England Patriots are 4-2.
WIN PROBABILITY BY WEEK
2026 · OUR PUBLISHED PROBABILITY FOR NE- 35 1 @SEA
- 65 2 PIT
- 39 3 @JAX
- 30 4 @BUF
- 73 5 LV
- 81 6 NYJ
- 58 7 @CHI
- 78 8 @MIA
- 69 9 GB
- 62 10 @DET
- 77 12 @LAC
- 61 13 BUF
- 64 14 MIN
- 61 15 @KC
- 77 16 @NYJ
- 62 17 DEN
- 81 18 MIA
Bar height is our win probability for New England Patriots going into the game. Green is a win, red a loss, grey a tie, amber the next game, outline still to play.
MATCHUP DIFFICULTY BY POSITION
NEXT 5 GAMES · PPR POINTS ALLOWED VS AVERAGE| POS | AVG | WK 6 | WK 7 | WK 8 | WK 9 | WK 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | +7% | +10% NYJ | +6% @CHI | +3% @MIA | -16% GB | +32% @DET |
| RB | +6% | +30% NYJ | -14% @CHI | +12% @MIA | +12% GB | -11% @DET |
| WR | +5% | -4% NYJ | +16% @CHI | -8% @MIA | -2% GB | +21% @DET |
| TE | +5% | -4% NYJ | -18% @CHI | +30% @MIA | -27% GB | +44% @DET |
Each cell is the opposing defense against that position. Positive (green) means it has allowed more fantasy points than the average defense, a softer week for New England Patriots players at that position. Negative (red) is a tougher one. See all 32 teams.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2026 SEASON+0.055
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.046
OFF EPA/PLAY
-0.009
DEF EPA/PLAY
+0.099
PASS EPA/PLAY
-0.016
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2026 · 28 SEASONS-0.019
-0.094
+0.058
-0.014
+0.116
+0.196
+0.051
+0.171
+0.344
+0.083
+0.141
+0.223
+0.147
+0.198
+0.039
+0.121
+0.155
+0.169
+0.098
+0.124
+0.220
-0.076
+0.135
+0.035
-0.136
-0.153
+0.205
+0.055
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25
26
| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.055 | +0.046 | -0.009 | 110 | 94 |
| 2025 | +0.205 | +0.158 | -0.047 | 490 | 320 |
| 2024 | -0.153 | -0.083 | +0.070 | 289 | 417 |
| 2023 | -0.136 | -0.191 | -0.055 | 236 | 366 |
| 2022 | +0.035 | -0.054 | -0.089 | 364 | 347 |
| 2021 | +0.135 | +0.069 | -0.066 | 462 | 303 |
| 2020 | -0.076 | -0.004 | +0.071 | 326 | 353 |
| 2019 | +0.220 | -0.010 | -0.231 | 420 | 225 |
| 2018 | +0.124 | +0.083 | -0.040 | 436 | 325 |
| 2017 | +0.098 | +0.123 | +0.026 | 458 | 296 |
| 2016 | +0.169 | +0.127 | -0.042 | 441 | 250 |
| 2015 | +0.155 | +0.104 | -0.051 | 465 | 315 |
| 2014 | +0.121 | +0.083 | -0.037 | 468 | 313 |
| 2013 | +0.039 | +0.041 | +0.002 | 444 | 338 |
| 2012 | +0.198 | +0.171 | -0.027 | 557 | 331 |
| 2011 | +0.147 | +0.203 | +0.056 | 513 | 342 |
| 2010 | +0.223 | +0.201 | -0.022 | 518 | 313 |
| 2009 | +0.141 | +0.111 | -0.029 | 427 | 285 |
| 2008 | +0.083 | +0.097 | +0.013 | 410 | 309 |
| 2007 | +0.344 | +0.258 | -0.086 | 589 | 274 |
| 2006 | +0.171 | +0.054 | -0.116 | 385 | 237 |
| 2005 | +0.051 | +0.070 | +0.019 | 379 | 338 |
| 2004 | +0.196 | +0.101 | -0.095 | 437 | 260 |
| 2003 | +0.116 | -0.052 | -0.168 | 348 | 238 |
| 2002 | -0.014 | -0.009 | +0.005 | 381 | 346 |
| 2001 | +0.058 | -0.036 | -0.094 | 371 | 272 |
| 2000 | -0.094 | -0.100 | -0.006 | 276 | 338 |
| 1999 | -0.019 | -0.118 | -0.099 | 299 | 284 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
54.0%
EARLY DOWN PASS
47.9%
SHOTGUN RATE
53.7%
NO HUDDLE
0.6%
4TH DOWN GO
25.0%
4TH DOWN CONV
87.5%
3RD DOWN CONV
38.7%
RED ZONE TD
63.6%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
60.0%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
-0.058
PTS/DRIVE
1.6
PLAYS/DRIVE
6.0
COACHING TREND
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.0% | 25.0% | 38.7% | 63.6% | 1.6 | -0.063 |
| 2025 | 54.1% | 24.5% | 43.6% | 84.2% | 2.2 | -0.166 |
| 2024 | 57.1% | 19.2% | 35.0% | 66.7% | 1.2 | -0.075 |
| 2023 | 59.6% | 17.0% | 30.2% | 76.5% | 0.9 | +0.042 |
| 2022 | 59.1% | 10.3% | 35.7% | 65.0% | 1.2 | -0.030 |
| 2021 | 54.4% | 15.1% | 44.4% | 85.7% | 2.0 | -0.028 |
| 2020 | 49.2% | 17.3% | 41.1% | 75.0% | 1.5 | +0.072 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Maye | QB | 5 | 1,228 | 161 | — | 9 | 87.2 |
| R.Stevenson | RB | 5 | — | 227 | 111 | 2 | 60.8 |
| T.Henderson | RB | 4 | — | 163 | 22 | 1 | 26.5 |
| R.Doubs | WR | 5 | — | — | 219 | 2 | 46.9 |
| D.Douglas | WR | 5 | — | — | 147 | 2 | 39.7 |
| M.Hollins | WR | 4 | — | — | 209 | 0 | 35.9 |
| H.Henry | TE | 5 | — | — | 177 | 1 | 38.7 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
25-29
46% WIN RATE
AWAY
26-27
49% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS35-17
PICKS FOR
67%
FOR ACCURACY
39-16
PICKS AGAINST
71%
AGAINST ACCURACY
107
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK NE · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
18-13
58.1%
AWAY
11-10
52.4%
FAVORITE
25-17
59.5%
UNDERDOG
4-6
40.0%
S TIER
2-1
A+ TIER
2-2
A TIER
4-0
B TIER
15-11
C TIER
6-9
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR NE · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs ATL2-0
vs CLE3-0
vs TEN2-0
vs CAR2-0
vs ARI2-0
vs NYJ10-1
vs LV2-1
vs MIA3-2
vs NYG1-1
vs HOU1-1
vs BUF1-2
vs IND1-2
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | FCST | 81% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | DEN @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | NE @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | NE | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | NE @ KCMON 8:15 PM | NE | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | MIN @ NETHU 8:15 PM | NE | FCST | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | BUF @ NESUN 4:25 PM | NE | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | NE @ LACSUN 8:20 PM | NE | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | NE @ DETSUN 9:30 AM | NE | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | GB @ NESUN 4:25 PM | NE | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | NE @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | NE | FCST | 78% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | NE @ CHITHU 8:15 PM | NE | C | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | S | 81% | NYJ 19–26 NE | WIN |
| 2026·W5 | LV @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | A | 73% | LV 17–45 NE | WIN |
| 2026·W4 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | NE 29–26 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2026·W3 | NE @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | B | 61% | NE 6–35 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2026·W2 | PIT @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 65% | PIT 3–20 NE | WIN |
| 2026·W1 | NE @ SEAWED 8:20 PM | SEA | B | 65% | NE 10–13 SEA | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W18 | MIA @ NESUN 4:25 PM | NE | A | 72% | MIA 10–38 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | NE @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | NE | A | 74% | NE 42–10 NYJ | WIN |
| 2025·W16 | NE @ BALSUN 8:20 PM | BAL | C | 59% | NE 28–24 BAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W15 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 59% | BUF 35–31 NE | LOSS |
| 2025·W13 | NYG @ NEMON 8:15 PM | NE | S | 80% | NYG 15–33 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W12 | NE @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 69% | NE 26–20 CIN | WIN |
| 2025·W11 | NYJ @ NETHU 8:15 PM | NE | A+ | 75% | NYJ 14–27 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W10 | NE @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 67% | NE 28–23 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | ATL @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 65% | ATL 23–24 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W8 | CLE @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | A | 72% | CLE 13–32 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W7 | NE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 70% | NE 31–13 TEN | WIN |
| 2025·W6 | NE @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | C | 60% | NE 25–19 NO | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W5 | NE @ BUFSUN 8:20 PM | BUF | S | 82% | NE 23–20 BUF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | CAR @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 58% | CAR 13–42 NE | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | PIT @ NESUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 59% | PIT 21–14 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W2 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 67% | NE 33–27 MIA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | LV @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 50% | LV 20–13 NE | LOSS |
| 2024·W18 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | BUF | S | 83% | BUF 16–23 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W17 | LAC @ NESAT 1:00 PM | LAC | B | 65% | LAC 40–7 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W16 | NE @ BUFSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | S | 85% | NE 21–24 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W15 | NE @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | ARI | B | 69% | NE 17–30 ARI | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W13 | IND @ NESUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 61% | IND 25–24 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W12 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 72% | NE 15–34 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W11 | LAR @ NESUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 65% | LAR 28–22 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W10 | NE @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | CHI | B | 69% | NE 19–3 CHI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W9 | NE @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 60% | NE 17–20 TEN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W8 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NYJ | B | 61% | NYJ 22–25 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W7 | NE @ JAXSUN 9:30 AM | JAX | B | 68% | NE 16–32 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W6 | HOU @ NESUN 1:00 PM | HOU | B | 69% | HOU 41–21 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W5 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 64% | MIA 15–10 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W4 | NE @ SFSUN 4:05 PM | SF | A+ | 73% | NE 13–30 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W3 | NE @ NYJTHU 8:15 PM | NYJ | B | 63% | NE 3–24 NYJ | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | SEA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | SEA | B | 64% | SEA 23–20 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W1 | NE @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | B | 69% | NE 16–10 CIN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 63% | NYJ 17–3 NE | LOSS |
| 2023·W17 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 80% | NE 21–27 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W16 | NE @ DENSUN 8:15 PM | DEN | B | 69% | NE 26–23 DEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W15 | KC @ NESUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 69% | KC 27–17 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W14 | NE @ PITTHU 8:15 PM | PIT | A | 75% | NE 21–18 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W13 | LAC @ NESUN 1:00 PM | LAC | B | 60% | LAC 6–0 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W12 | NE @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 63% | NE 7–10 NYG | LOSS |
| 2023·W10 | IND @ NESUN 9:30 AM | NE | C | 56% | IND 10–6 NE | LOSS |
| 2023·W9 | WAS @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 59% | WAS 20–17 NE | LOSS |
| 2023·W8 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | A | 72% | NE 17–31 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W7 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 78% | BUF 25–29 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W6 | NE @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | LV | B | 64% | NE 17–21 LV | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W5 | NO @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 59% | NO 34–0 NE | LOSS |
| 2023·W4 | NE @ DALSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | B | 69% | NE 3–38 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W3 | NE @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 60% | NE 15–10 NYJ | WIN |
| 2023·W2 | MIA @ NESUN 8:20 PM | MIA | C | 60% | MIA 24–17 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W1 | PHI @ NESUN 4:25 PM | PHI | B | 65% | PHI 25–20 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 76% | NE 23–35 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W17 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 58% | MIA 21–23 NE | WIN |
| 2022·W16 | CIN @ NESAT 1:00 PM | CIN | B | 65% | CIN 22–18 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W15 | NE @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | LV | C | 58% | NE 24–30 LV | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | NE @ ARIMON 8:15 PM | NE | B | 60% | NE 27–13 ARI | WIN |
| 2022·W13 | BUF @ NETHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 24–10 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W12 | NE @ MINTHU 8:20 PM | NE | B | 59% | NE 26–33 MIN | LOSS |
| 2022·W11 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 67% | NYJ 3–10 NE | WIN |
| 2022·W9 | IND @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 64% | IND 3–26 NE | WIN |
| 2022·W8 | NE @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 58% | NE 22–17 NYJ | WIN |
| 2022·W7 | CHI @ NEMON 8:15 PM | NE | A+ | 72% | CHI 33–14 NE | LOSS |
| 2022·W6 | NE @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 61% | NE 38–15 CLE | WIN |
| 2022·W5 | DET @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 67% | DET 0–29 NE | WIN |
| 2022·W4 | NE @ GBSUN 4:25 PM | GB | B | 65% | NE 24–27 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W3 | BAL @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 67% | BAL 37–26 NE | LOSS |
| 2022·W2 | NE @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 56% | NE 17–14 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W1 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 57% | NE 7–20 MIA | LOSS |
| 2021·W18 | NE @ MIASUN 4:25 PM | NE | C | 55% | NE 24–33 MIA | LOSS |
| 2021·W17 | JAX @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | S | 74% | JAX 10–50 NE | WIN |
| 2021·W16 | BUF @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 55% | BUF 33–21 NE | LOSS |
| 2021·W15 | NE @ INDSAT 8:20 PM | NE | B | 52% | NE 17–27 IND | LOSS |
| 2021·W13 | NE @ BUFMON 8:15 PM | NE | C | 49% | NE 14–10 BUF | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | TEN @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 55% | TEN 13–36 NE | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | NE @ ATLTHU 8:20 PM | NE | B | 64% | NE 25–0 ATL | WIN |
| 2021·W10 | CLE @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 52% | CLE 7–45 NE | WIN |
| 2021·W9 | NE @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 57% | NE 24–6 CAR | WIN |
| 2021·W8 | NE @ LACSUN 4:05 PM | LAC | C | 54% | NE 27–24 LAC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W7 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 60% | NYJ 13–54 NE | WIN |
| 2021·W6 | DAL @ NESUN 4:25 PM | DAL | B | 58% | DAL 35–29 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W5 | NE @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 57% | NE 25–22 HOU | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | TB @ NESUN 8:20 PM | TB | B | 57% | TB 19–17 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W3 | NO @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 58% | NO 28–13 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W2 | NE @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 59% | NE 25–6 NYJ | WIN |
| 2021·W1 | MIA @ NESUN 4:25 PM | MIA | B | 53% | MIA 17–16 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W17 | NYJ @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 56% | NYJ 14–28 NE | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | BUF @ NEMON 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 38–9 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W15 | NE @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 54% | NE 12–22 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W14 | NE @ LARTHU 8:20 PM | LAR | C | 54% | NE 3–24 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W13 | NE @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | NE | C | 56% | NE 45–0 LAC | WIN |
| 2020·W12 | ARI @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 51% | ARI 17–20 NE | WIN |
| 2020·W11 | NE @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 56% | NE 20–27 HOU | LOSS |
| 2020·W10 | BAL @ NESUN 8:20 PM | BAL | B | 63% | BAL 17–23 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W9 | NE @ NYJMON 8:15 PM | NE | C | 57% | NE 30–27 NYJ | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | NE @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 58% | NE 21–24 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W7 | SF @ NESUN 4:25 PM | SF | C | 49% | SF 33–6 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W6 | DEN @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | A+ | 63% | DEN 18–12 NE | LOSS |
| 2020·W4 | NE @ KCMON 7:05 PM | KC | B | 58% | NE 10–26 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W3 | LV @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 57% | LV 20–36 NE | WIN |
| 2020·W2 | NE @ SEASUN 8:20 PM | NE | B | 55% | NE 30–35 SEA | LOSS |
| 2020·W1 | MIA @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | A+ | 63% | MIA 11–21 NE | WIN |