Texans vs Patriots – Week 6 2024
HOU
NE
HOU
AWAY
41@21
HOU BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 41, New England Patriots 21.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
38.8% (31)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 20. Off by 13.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@HOUW5 2021 | NE 25, HOU 22 | NE | W |
| NE@HOUW11 2020 | NE 20, HOU 27 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NE
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.5. The market has HOU at -6.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 41, NE 21. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -6.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 6, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 25, HOU 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against NE -0.153.
