HOU @ NE – Week 6 2024
HOU
NE
HOU
AWAY
41@21
HOU BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-218
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.050Offense EPA / play-0.083
-0.065Defense EPA / play+0.070
38.8%Offense success %42.4%
39.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 20. Off by 13.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -265 | +215 |
| Our fair price | -218 | +218 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5 SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4 SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3727 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mixon1016 yd · 11 TD
D.Pierce293 yd · 2 TD
C.Stroud233 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins68 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
T.Dell51 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@HOUW5 2021 | NE 25, HOU 22 | NE | W |
| NE@HOUW11 2020 | NE 20, HOU 27 | NE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.5. The market has HOU at -6.5.
The model projects 42.7 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 25, HOU 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against NE -0.153.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
