Patriots vs Texans – Week 5 2021
NE
HOU
NE
AWAY
25@22
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 25, Houston Texans 22.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: NE 57%Our line: NE -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.212
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (31)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.074 (28)
48.4% (4)Offense success %37.4% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 2.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NEW6 2024 | HOU 41, NE 21 | HOU | W |
| NE@HOUW11 2020 | NE 20, HOU 27 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs HOU
Our model takes New England Patriots at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.2. The market has NE at -8.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 25, HOU 22. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -8.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 5, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 7.8 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 41, NE 21 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against HOU -0.212.
