2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ HOU – Week 5 2021
NE
HOU
NE
AWAY
25@22
NE +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 57%Projected margin: -3.4
NE
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
-3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 3.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -339 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3SEASON PPR
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NEW6 2024 | HOU 41, NE 21 | HOU | W |
| NE@HOUW11 2020 | NE 20, HOU 27 | NE | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES